Finance Ledger Report

*As of June 2026 (partial month). This narrative is refreshed weekly by `/weekly` from the latest Wallet import — the numbers and verdicts below track the data in the charts above.*

Where we stand

The BPER balance peaked at €18,422 in March 2025 and has drifted down to €11,689 by June 2026 — roughly €6,700 off the peak, and down about €1,600 since January. On the spending universe, 2026 is running close to break-even: €36,027 in, €36,488 out across the first half (both partial for June). Five of the first six months of 2026 ran a deficit; only June posted a clear surplus.

The honest one-line summary: this is a flat year, not a saving year. Income roughly equals outflow, so the buffer isn't growing and the €500/mo routine-surplus target is not being met. That is not the same as reckless spending — it's a thin margin, and the cause is more on the income side than the spending side (see below).

Spending — what's holding, what's leaking

• Family dining is under control. Eating Out + Delivery averaged ~€339/mo in 2026, comfortably under the €400 cap. This lever is working — no action needed.
• Personal Discretionary is the leak. It averaged ~€643/mo, sitting *above* its €350 line in the report every single month. The two heaviest sub-levers are Subscriptions Tools (~€214/mo — the AI tools) and Personal Eating Out (~€148/mo). This is the same "generosity-as-leak / AI-tool climb" already named in `finance.md`; it's stabilising, but it remains the single most recoverable ~€100–200/mo on the controllable side.
• Travel is lumpy but within budget. €3,877 spent against the €7,000/yr envelope — on pace, with the mid-July Croatia trip (~€500, staying with family) still to land.
• Fixed obligations are structural — mortgage, condominio, insurances, the Tesla loan (€484/mo), taxes, ENPAM. Large but not where the decisions are.

Income — the real story

The thing that actually moved the year is Teleconsult UK collapsing: €8,130 in 2025 → €612 in 2026 (the ledger now labels it *Dead*). That's roughly €670/mo of income gone, and it more than accounts for the missing surplus. Libera professione now leans almost entirely on Medicalgarda (~€749/mo) plus occasional Marco ultrasound sessions. Hospital salary is steady at ~€4,930/mo.

In other words: the surplus didn't disappear because spending blew up — it disappeared because a €670/mo income stream died.

Projection to year-end

H2 2026 carries a lump wall of ~€9,000 (F24 July ~€3,188, Tesla insurance August ~€745, F24 November ~€1,458, ENPAM Quota B ~€1,300, winter tyres ~€1,300, commercialista ~€976, bollo). That exceeds the expected surplus plus the December tredicesima (~€1,988) by about €3,000. So the realistic read is that the buffer draws down further over H2 to ~€8,600 by year-end at €350/mo personal discipline — meaningful accumulation is deferred to 2027, once these one-offs clear and (hopefully) an income decision is made.

Is the current way of spending "good"?

Verdict: disciplined where it's visible, leaky where it's personal — but the binding constraint is income, not spending. Family and travel are inside their envelopes. The fixable spending leak is Personal Discretionary (AI subscriptions + personal eating out), worth ~€100–200/mo if tightened toward the €350 line. But even a perfect spending month wouldn't restore the ~€670/mo lost when Teleconsult UK died. Keep tightening the personal bar, but understand that the real lever back to a surplus is the income side — the September 2026 savings-gate decision on whether to reopen Teleconsult UK.

VWCE — keep it, or do something else?

Keep VWCE. Don't change the instrument, and don't accelerate contributions yet.

• VWCE (the single accumulating global ETF the Directa PAC buys) is the right vehicle: broad, low-cost, commission-free PAC, and Directa's *sostituto d'imposta* keeps the tax admin trivial. There's no better alternative to switch to — leave it.
• But it should stay at its floor (~€100/mo equivalent) through H2 2026, exactly as the plan says. With the buffer at only ~2.3 months of spend (€11,700 vs the €30k / 6-month target) and a €9k lump wall ahead, safety comes before growth. Putting more into VWCE now would mean drawing the thin buffer down faster.
• The plan's automatic step-up is the right mechanism: buffer <€20k → PAC €100/mo; €20–30k → €150/mo; ≥€30k → €200+/mo. Let the buffer drive the dial; don't override it manually.
• Don't open a conto deposito yet (it adds no safety the FITD-protected BPER buffer doesn't already have, and locks liquidity the lump wall needs), and don't prepay the 1.45%-fixed mortgage (it's cheaper than any safe return).

So: the architecture is sound and should continue unchanged. The work this year isn't to invest more — it's to protect the buffer through the lump wall and decide the income question in September.

The one thing to watch

September 2026 savings gate. If the buffer is materially below where it should be by then, that's the trigger to revisit reopening Teleconsult UK (the door is closed but reopenable). Income is the lever that flips this from a flat year back into a saving year — discretionary tightening helps at the margin, but it can't replace €670/mo on its own.